A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
